One of the challenges of polling in any election cycle is to first get behind the horse race numbers but also to get a sense of what voter turnout will be. Thus, most pollsters ask framing questions to understand where parties are at from a public trust perspective on a host of issues. Further, it is imperative that pollsters improve their ability to triangulate diverse data sources to bring depth to the fundamentals of tracking voter intentions. For the next month, and since candidate slates are now official, Justason Marketing Intelligence and zinc tank have teamed up to offer regular insights on this Provincial Election. This first post delves into economic stewardship.
From a party perspective, on the matter of managing the economy, the public now feels that the NDP and Liberals are similarly trusted in managing BC’s economy.
Based on a 1Question Google Surveys poll undertaken April 12-15, 2017, we asked the question: “Which party do you most trust to manage BC’s economy?” Overall, just under one-third (31%) mistrust or have little interest with the current political parties to manage BC’s economy. This is beginning to quantify the projections of voter turnout. Among those who have an opinion, it is a close call between the Liberals and the NDP (both at 37%). This is a little surprising, especially given this has been the Liberals’ trump card in over the last 2 election cycles. It appears this time, the public is considering this trust in economic stewardship carefully at this point. That includes stronger than expected trust in the Greens (15% of decided).
Regionally, the Liberals trust is strongest in the Greater Vancouver Region (outside of the City of Vancouver) and Southern/Eastern BC, while the NDPs strength is in the City of Vancouver and Northern BC. The Greens strength is on Vancouver Island and the Gulf Islands, albeit still below the Liberals and NDP. By gender, men indicated a more trust in the Liberals, while women are leaning towards the NDP. By age group, the level of trust for the NDP is relatively the same, while for the Liberals it is stronger with 55 years+ demographic.
Traditionally, economic stewardship is a bellwether issue that people consider quite strongly when they go to the polls. The Liberals have won elections amidst frustration based on the performance of the BC economy. Clearly, anger and complacency can exist and would work to the benefit of a well-organized incumbent, as was the case in 2013. However, at this point, early in this election cycle, this is being challenged from two parties whose ideas for their role in the economy appear to be entertained by a majority of voters.
For more information, contact Barb Justason, 604.783.4165 or Brian F. Singh, 403.861.9462.
* THIS SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED VIA GOOGLE SURVEYS OVER (APRIL 12-15, 2017). GOOGLE SURVEYS USES A COMBINATION OF BAYESIAN, RIVER-SAMPLING METHODOLOGY ONLINE AND MOBILE AND TAPPING INTO GOOGLE COMMUNITIES TO YIELD A POPULATION REFLECTIVE SAMPLE OF BC’S POPULATION. HENCE, NO MARGIN OF ERROR IS REPORTED. OF NOTE, BC HAS A HIGH PENETRATION RATE OF MOBILE USAGE IN NORTH AMERICA, AND BROADBAND INTERNET ACCESS EXCEEDS LAND LINE USAGE. GOOGLE SURVEYS CONTINUES TO BE RATED FAVOURABLY (RATED BY 538: B), AND WAS USED EXTENSIVELY BY BRIAN F. SINGH IN HIS WORK ON BRIAN BOWMAN’S SUCCESSFUL MAYORAL CAMPAIGN IN THE 2014 WINNIPEG MUNICIPAL ELECTION, AND DURING THE ALBERTA AND FEDERAL ELECTIONS IN 2015. GOOGLE SURVEYS IS BUT ONE METHODOLOGY IN A POLLSTERS TOOLKIT WHILE NOT DEFINITIVE (AS HAS BEEN WITNESSED WITH OTHER POLLING METHODS), IT PROVIDES QUALITY DIRECTIONAL DATA THAT IS ABLE TO STAND ON ITS OWN AND IN CONCERT WITH OTHER MODES OF DATA COLLECTION, AND WE CROSS VALIDATE ITS FINDINGS FROM OTHER POLLING FIRMS THAT USE OTHER FORMS OF TRADITIONAL POLLING.